In March to April 2024, the 2019-2024 Minister of Defence and President-Elect of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, made overseas visits to two of Indonesia's comprehensive strategic partners, China and Japan, and the closest neighbour, Malaysia. Two things stand out for being unusual. First, Beijing's move to invite Prabowo as president-elect, even though the process of determining the election results is still pending a dispute over the general election results at the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Indonesia. Second, Prabowo not only accepted the invitation but also visited Japan and Malaysia as well. This article summarises various views that explore the meaning of these two things and their impact on Indonesia.
So far, China is known for its policy of non-intervention, or no strings attached to the domestic politics of its partner countries. Therefore, Beijing's invitation to Prabowo, who has not yet been sworn president, raises questions about the motivation and urgency behind it. One neutral interpretation sees Beijing's efforts as a steal to ensure that good relations in the era of President Jokowi continue. The specialness of Beijing's invitation was demonstrated by Prabowo's direct meeting with President Xi Jinping on March 31, 2024, before meeting with Prime Minister Lu Qiang on April 1, 2024. A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that with his first visit as president-elect, Prabowo demonstrated the strength of China-Indonesia relations. However, quite a few consider this step to be unethical, and even seen as a form of intervention.
Prabowo himself is careful about accepting Beijing's invitation. He departed in the capacity of defence minister, with permission and carrying a message from President Jokowi to President Xi. Observers believe that Beijing's preferential treatment of Prabowo as president-elect is “out of his control". The decision to continue his visit to Japan and meet directly with Prime Minister Kishida on April 3 2024 is also seen as an attempt to emphasise the centrality of the Free-Active foreign policy. This is similar to President Jokowi's strategy in 2015. The visit to Malaysia is a tradition for the new Indonesian president to start an overseas visit to the nearest country in ASEAN, in addition to the long-standing personal relationship between Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Prabowo.
What national interests are being put forth via defence diplomacy to China, Japan, and Malaysia?
First, the visit to China aims to ensure the continuation and expansion of defence cooperation between Indonesia and China. This is important considering China's ten dashed-line claims that affect Indonesia's North Natuna Sea. Apart from that, Indonesia is also trying to solidify the foundation of Indonesia-China relations in various regional forums including ASEAN Plus Three, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and South-South Cooperation (KSS). Second, the visit to Tokyo was carried out to strengthen bilateral defence cooperation, in which Indonesia requested an increase in the number of cadets studying in Japan and Japan emphasised the need for both countries to play a role in realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific based on the rule of law. Third, a visit to Malaysia is important to maintain mutual trust considering that the construction of the new capital city in Kalimantan will add the presence of 60,000 troops along with weapon systems on the island which shares a land border with Malaysia.
Table 1. Basic Facts in Bilateral Relations between Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, and ChinaÂ
Country | Share of Export 2023 | Share of Import 2023 | Investment realisation 2019-2024 (in 000 USD) | Defence cooperation status |
Malaysia | 4.89% | 5.44% | 11,170,510 | Security Arrangement in the Border Regions (1972), Memorandum of Understanding (2022)Â |
Japan | 8.03% | 8.84% | 17,364,396 | Memorandum of Understanding (2015), 2+2 forum |
China | 25.66% | 3.42% | 28,411,708 | Memorandum of Understanding (2007), Defence Industry Cooperation Meeting |
Source: Collected from Fiscal Policy Agency (BKF), Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), and Ministry of Foreign AffairsÂ
Prabowo Subianto's visit to China and Japan shows the continuation of a free and active foreign policy as well as increasing Indonesia's strategic position in the eyes of major countries in the region. Both President Xi and PM Kishida see Indonesia as a strategic partner in the region in the economic and diplomatic fields. China is Indonesia's largest trading partner and second-largest source of investment. Japan is Indonesia's third-largest trading partner and fourth-largest source of investment. Both play an important role in the strategic field in the Indo-Pacific region. In 2023, Indonesia and Japan commemorated 65 years of bilateral working relations which have reached the level of comprehensive strategic cooperation. Despite the tensions brewing in the Indo-Pacific region due to big states’ rivalries and territorial conflicts in the South and East China Sea, Indonesia strives to achieve its national interests through good relations and proactive defence diplomacy. The visits serve as an opportunity for Indonesia to play a more active role that helps maintain stability and security in the Indo-Pacific.
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ISI Foreign Policy and Diplomacy Division
April 2024